Scouting Reports - Stetson Allie (2010 Draft Class)

Filed By: Nick James

Filed On: January 12, 2010

Scouted:

WWBA World Championships (Jupiter, Fla.), October 23-24, 2009 (in attendance)

Aflac All-American Game (San Diego, Calif.), August 17, 2009 (film)

Under Armour All-America Game (Chicago, Ill.), August 8, 2009 (in attendance)

Perfect Game National Showcase (Minneapolis, Minn.), June 11-14 (film)

Frame:

Strong, thick build; close to filled-out. Adequate actions in the field (3B/1B). Shows understanding of how to make use of his strength at the plate, in the field and on the mound. Body control is solid. Elite power prospect.

Swing:

Allie's strength is, well, his strength. Hitting from a tall, upright stance, Allie does an excellent job of utilizing the leverage created through his core to produce easy plus raw-power. His bat speed isn't elite, and his ability to muscle the ball will decrease as he faces more advanced pitching. As with many high schoolers, his approach will need to be improved upon, with a focus on better commanding the strikezone and handling off-speed stuff.

Defense:

Allie is adequate in his actions at third base, and there's legit pro potential with his glove with increased repetitions. When he's off it can be ugly, be he shows enough comfort thus far to at least be able to begin a pro career at the hot corner. Most impressive is his true "80" arm with solid accuracy, which would be a shame to waste at first base (though he has shifted there on all-star teams to defer to better defenders. An outfield corner could be an option, but seems unlikely at this point.

Motion:

For someone that throws as hard as does Allie, there is surprisingly fluidity in his mechanics. His arm action is pretty free and easy -- simply lightening-quick. He centers well over the rubber, gets remarkable drive from his legs, and his hip-shoulder separation (lower-half forward, upper-half to third at plant) allows him to maximize the strength in his core. All of this adds up to incredible velocity, and his arm speed and strength help him to generate good spin on his slider. Even his follow-through is impressively controlled considering the momentum coming through after release. There are two big flags that could be contributors to his bouts of wildness -- one that might be correctable and one that is likely to stick around. First - the correctable - his arm action is very long in the back, coming all the way down behind him to almost knee level after hand-break and then coming all the way back, up and around to a clean 3/4 arm slot. With so much torque in his mid-section as he rotates through, his arm is going to have a hard time taking the same path each pitch, which will in turn make it difficult to nail down a consistent release point on his offerings. Second - the likely non-correctable - is his head/shoulder tug as he releases and rotates through. This is the highest effort point of his delivery as, at release, he tugs down and away with his head and shoulder. As with the long arm action, it will make it more difficult for him to nail down a consistent release point and, ultimately, prevent him from ever truly being a good "command" pitcher. Considering how easy his arm action is, this seems like a reasonable trade-off for the velocity he produces. Ultimately, cleaning-up the arm action some could be enough to reign-in his control and make his arsenal an effective collection of weapons against pro hitters.

Stuff:

Fastball - As owner to the best pure velocity in the draft class, Allie blows-up the gun wherever he goes (consistently mid-90s and dials-up to 97-99 with frequency). His lack of control drops the pitch down a grade right now, but with improved control it could be a true plus-plus Major League offering down the line. While he gets some armside run, there isn't much in the way of "explosiveness" or late life, and he may need to fool around with some grips to see if he can get a little more action at the pro ranks.

Slider - Allies's slider has plus potential for the velocity alone (upper-80s, breaking 90 on occasion). As is the case with his fastball, he doesn't control the pitch yet, though it's effective as an off-speed offering and a chase pitch right now. He gets good spin and a nice, tight break with excellent tilt down in the zone. The trajectory is similar to his fastball.

Change-up - Not scouted. Allie has little use for a change-up right now. As noted, his slider is a fine change-of-pace pitch, and the list of high school hitters that could hit his fastball, even if they know it is coming, is microscopic. He has showcase velocities for a change, so the pitch is definitely something he's at least tinkering with.

Nick's Notes:

Allie has off-the-charts armstrength that could be utilized on the mound and in the field (allowing a team to try and develop his power bat). There are arguments for developing him as a hitter or as a pitcher, though it's likely the best argument FOR the former is actually just an argument AGAINST the latter. With more consistency in his arm action, Allie could find his way to adequate control and a career as a big time Major League closer. Though some evaluators point to how "raw" he is on the mound, the questions on control and command may ultimately be easier to address, and in a shorter time span, than the questions about his glove and approach at the plate. It's an interesting situation where the player is clearly ready to compete against the professional talent in the low-Minors, but the preferable course of action (from an evaluative standpoint) may still be for him continue to develop both ways at North Carolina and re-assess in a few years. It's hard to argue that Allie would best suited taking that route, however, as there will surely be a Major League organization ready to get in on the developmental ground floor with a hefty "down payment". He's a special player and will undoubtedly be a closely-followed and sought-after commodity this spring. A little tinkering with his break-to-release-point mechanics could result in large dividends in the form of an power closer capable of moving quickly through the ranks. His aggressive approach on mound should serve him well if he slots into relief work as a pro, as is expected right now.

Projected Position: Late-inning Relief

Suggested Draft Slot: Mid- to Supplemental-1st Round

Updates:

[To come throughout the winter/spring]

Video: